El Niño Cut Zimbabwe Tobacco, Then Records Crashed Prices

Zimbabwe sold 232 million kilograms of tobacco in 2024, close to the El Niño forecast issued when the floors opened. That followed a record 296 million kilograms in 2023.

Patrick Devenish, chairman of the Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board, had put the drought crop at about 235 million kilograms on March 13, 2024. The season paid US$3.42 a kilogram, then the recovery paid less.

232 Million Kilograms After the Record Year

TIMB’s 2024 Annual Report, released on June 17, 2025, shows growers sold 232 million kilograms for US$794 million. A year earlier they had sold 296 million kilograms for US$897 million at US$3.03 a kilogram.

The board put the volume drop at 22 percent and blamed the El Niño drought. Devenish said the industry still held together on price.

The El Niño-induced drought affected national yield, but the industry remained resilient. Our focus was on ensuring pricing remained fair for growers through consistent oversight.

Patrick Devenish, Chairman, Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board

The body that control and regulate tobacco marketing licensed 37 contractors, who bought 218 million kilograms from 97,227 growers. Contract leaf was 94 percent of the crop. Two auction floors, Tobacco Sales Floor and Premier Tobacco Floor, moved 13.8 million kilograms worth US$49 million over 116 days, and the auction average rose from US$2.86 to US$3.55 a kilogram.

Registered growers fell 11 percent, from 155,160 in 2023 to 137,912 in 2024. Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland West saw the steepest losses. Emmanuel Matsvaire, then TIMB acting chief executive, said the board had started biogas and LPG curing trials, widened tree planting, and tightened checks on input prices.

Zimbabwe Shipped More Leaf Than It Grew

Farm-gate sales fell. Export receipts did not. Zimbabwe shipped 243.4 million kilograms of tobacco worth US$1.4 billion in 2024, up from 236 million kilograms worth US$1.2 billion in 2023.

That is 11.4 million kilograms more than the country sold from the new crop, which means merchants moved stocks as well as the drought harvest. The average export price rose from US$5.24 to US$5.71 a kilogram. The Far East took 53 percent of the shipments, and China has long been the main buyer of Zimbabwe’s flue-cured leaf.

The gap between what farmers were paid and what the leaf fetched abroad is the part of the drought year that never showed up in the opening-day forecast. Growers banked US$794 million. The export line added about US$600 million on top of that, at more than two dollars extra per kilogram.

Agriculture minister Anxious Masuka had already named the structural risk when the 2024 floors opened. Small-scale farmers, he said, produce about 75 percent of the crop, lack irrigation gear, and live on the rains. Tobacco still sat behind gold as a hard-currency earner, which is why a smaller harvest could still fatten the trade account.

What the Drought Did to Rain-Fed Plots

Devenish had put the same point in one line at the March 13, 2024 opening in Harare. “Most of our tobacco is grown by small-scale farmers. They depend on the rains, and a drought is not good for their crop.” George Seremwe, who heads the Tobacco Growers Association, said the dry season was likely to cost farmers 20 percent or more of their usual earnings.

Likephone Makii, a grower from Madziwa, about 140 kilometres northwest of Harare, showed how that landed on a two-hectare plot. He usually cuts 6,000 to 7,000 kilograms. He expected about 3,000 kilograms in 2024, and he took US$1.70 a kilogram for one poor-quality bale at auction.

The World Food Programme later recorded 7.1 million people without adequate food by December 2024, out of a population of 15.2 million. The government had declared a national disaster in April 2024. Tobacco did not cause that hunger, but the same failed rains cut both the cash crop and the food plots beside it, and Makii said his household would need food aid to get through the year.

Miriam Ndiraya, a grower in Rusape, put the irrigation gap in working language. “Putting in irrigation is a dream for most of us, small-scale farmers,” she said. After contractor loans are repaid, she added, earnings are gone, so the farm stays on rainfall. Casper Mlambo of the Zimbabwe Tobacco Association argued for public loans toward dams and drip systems. Seremwe asked ministries to repair the old commercial-farm schemes that have decayed since land reform.

Chelesani Moyo, a TIMB spokesperson, said the board had backed loan guarantees so small-scale growers in Mashonaland West could buy centre pivots, with the aim of copying that model in other provinces. Every grower is also required to plant 0.3 hectares of trees for each hectare of tobacco, a rule meant to offset curing wood. Zimbabwe’s Forestry Commission has put annual forest loss at 262,000 hectares, with 15 to 20 percent of that tied to tobacco curing.

The Rebound That Crashed the Price

Once the rains returned, the crop did not merely recover. It overshot the 300 million kilogram target in the Tobacco Value Chain Transformation Plan that Cabinet approved in 2021. TIMB closed 2025 at 353 million kilograms, worth US$1.17 billion, at US$3.32 a kilogram, a 52 percent jump in volume from 232 million kilograms.

Isheunesu Moyo, a TIMB spokesperson, called tobacco a strong pillar and credited grower support and extra land. Contractors took 333 million kilograms at US$3.31. Auction floors took 20 million kilograms at US$3.55. Then 2026 went further in mass and backwards in price.

FOUR TOBACCO SEASONS

TIMB’s final 2026 figures put the average at US$2.49 a kilogram. Sales value dropped about 24 percent from 2025 even as volume set another record. The average price itself was down 25 percent from US$3.32. Auction growers averaged US$1.90 a kilogram against US$2.55 on contract, and contract sales were still more than 91 percent of the crop.

Forget Kasamu, a small-scale farmer, said a bale under US$5 left him short for labour and haulage.

I don’t know how I’m going to get through this. I still have transport costs of US$18 per bale, and I have six workers who need to be paid.

Forget Kasamu, small-scale tobacco farmer

Matsvaire, now TIMB chief executive, said high volumes bring market pressure. Graham Ross, president of the Zimbabwe Tobacco Association, described “very mixed feelings on the market and indeed the bottom line” and pointed to a local, regional and world oversupply. Brazil and India also grew large crops. The 2026 harvest paid growers almost the same money as 2023, US$893.88 million against US$897 million, for tens of millions more kilograms.

41 Percent Fewer Growers Signed On

The price signal is already cutting the next planting. Only 27,543 farmers had registered for the 2026/27 season by September 18, 2026, down 41 percent from 46,587 at the same point a year earlier. Seed sales fell 37 percent to 868,785 grams. Land estimated from those sales dropped from 277,680 hectares to 173,757 hectares, a cut of 103,923 hectares.

Mashonaland East registrations were down 57 percent to 3,649. Manicaland fell 48 percent to 4,368, Mashonaland Central 38 percent to 9,645, and Mashonaland West 31 percent to 9,804. Those four provinces carry most of the national crop, so an early strike there is a national crop problem, not a local one.

That retreat is the reverse of January 2025, when TIMB had 127,112 growers on the books for 2024/25, up from 115,053 a year earlier, with firmer prices still pulling people in. For the 2026 marketing season itself, Rhyne Chikuni, TIMB public affairs officer, said 115,121 growers had registered and planted 164,536 hectares. Those are two different counts: the people who already grew the cheap record, and the much smaller group signing up while the next dry season is being called.

TSL, a major leaf, logistics and inputs firm, reported weak demand for seedbed packs ahead of the forecast Super El Niño. Matsvaire also said many merchants started buying a week late in 2026 because bank credit lines were not yet in place. The market that wanted more leaf in 2025 is now paying less for it and asking for less seed.

TIMB Is Already Warning About the Next El Niño

The board is not treating 2026/27 as a normal planting. On October 13, 2026, TIMB told growers to insure the new crop against hail, wind, theft, barn fires and transit losses, and it tied that advice to El Niño risk.

With El Niño-related climate risks, tobacco growers are encouraged to insure their 2026/27 crop against potential losses from hailstorms, strong winds, theft, sabotage, barn fires and transit-related incidents.

⚠️ INSURE WISELY!

🟢 Never delegate anyone to sign insurance… pic.twitter.com/ZeKsNNU1PQ

— Tobacco Industry & Marketing Board (@timb_zw) October 13, 2026

Chikuni said uninsured losses wipe out a season, leave contractor debts unpaid, and block the path TIMB still describes toward middle-income farming by 2030. Uptake is about 40 percent, in line with a 2025 industry survey that found 39 percent of growers insured and 61 percent uncovered. At about 2,150 kilograms a hectare and US$2.49 a kilogram, one hectare grossed about US$5,350, so an inputs policy at US$80 to US$105 a hectare is 1.5 to 2 percent of what is at risk.

Imperial College’s Grantham Institute notes that recent studies suggest climate change stronger El Niño events under global heating. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said on October 8, 2026, that El Niño was firmly established and strengthening, with a near-certain chance of lasting through February 2027. FEWS NET’s September 2026 update expects El Niño to drive an erratic start to the rains and below-average rainfall across Zimbabwe, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely from October in deficit-producing areas.

WHAT TIMB WANTS ON THE GROUND

• Drought seed: Plant KRK71, KRK75 and the T78 to T81 lines, which Kutsaga bred for moisture stress and faster finish in dry weather.
• Water work: Pair those varieties with water harvesting, mulching, tighter planting dates and whatever irrigation a grower can run.
• Insurance: Cover hail, wind, fire, theft and transit before the crop is in the ground, and do not let someone else sign the policy.
• Pest watch: Destroy stalks, pull volunteer plants, and scout early for aphids and mealybug, which multiply in hot, dry spells.

Kutsaga, the tobacco research station, says KRK71 (released in 2016) and KRK75 (released in 2019) push deep roots, while T78 to T81, limited-release in 2024, try to finish before late-season heat. Irrigated growers can keep older lines. Dryland growers cannot. Cabinet has also approved cloud seeding from November 1, 2026, with aircraft in Harare, Bulawayo and Masvingo, and a US$500 million cash-and-grain El Niño protection fund.

FROM FORECAST TO THE NEXT WARNING

1. 2023: Growers sell a record 296 million kilograms for US$897 million at US$3.03 a kilogram.
2. March 13, 2024: Devenish forecasts about 235 million kilograms as El Niño drought takes hold.
3. April 2024: Government declares a national disaster as food and cash crops fail together.
4. 2024 season: TIMB records 232 million kilograms, US$794 million at US$3.42, while exports reach US$1.4 billion.
5. 2025 season: Output rebounds to 353 million kilograms and US$1.17 billion at US$3.32 a kilogram.
6. 2026 season: Another record, more than 357 million kilograms, sells for US$2.49 and US$893.88 million.
7. October 2026: TIMB tells growers to insure and switch seed for a forecast El Niño in 2026/27.

The drought that was supposed to break the crop came within 3 million kilograms of the forecast and still paid the best average of this four-year run. The harvests that followed broke the volume records and cut the price growers will carry into the next dry season.

Frequently Asked Questions

How Much Tobacco Did Zimbabwe Grow in 2024?

TIMB’s 2024 Annual Report puts sales at 232 million kilograms, against the March forecast of about 235 million kilograms. Auction floors handled only 13.8 million kilograms of that total, worth US$49 million, so the drought crop was almost entirely a contract crop before it reached the bins.

Why Are Smallholders So Exposed to Drought?

Masuka’s figure is that small-scale growers produce about 75 percent of the crop and farm without irrigation. After land reform, output fell from about 240 million kilograms in 1998 to 48 million kilograms in 2008, and the revival ran through contract inputs on rain-fed plots rather than a rebuilt national irrigation grid.

What Is Contract Farming in Zimbabwe Tobacco?

Merchants issue seed, fertiliser and chemicals, then buy the leaf. In 2024 that channel was 94 percent of sales, with 37 licensed contractors taking 218 million kilograms from 97,227 growers at US$3.42 a kilogram, the same national average as the whole crop.

What Was the 2021 Tobacco Transformation Plan?

Cabinet’s Tobacco Value Chain Transformation Plan set a 300 million kilogram crop and a US$5 billion sector, with more local finance and more processing at home. Volume cleared that kilogram target in 2025, but 2026 grower sales of US$893.88 million show the value target is a different, unmet number.

Growers now head into a forecast dry season with a 40 percent insurance rate, cheaper leaf, and a registration list that has already shortened. The 2024 cut was the weather. The bill sitting on the 2026/27 seedbed is the price that weather no longer props up.