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Zimbabwe Tobacco Farmers Grew a Record Crop for Less

Two years after El Niño cut Zimbabwe’s tobacco harvest, farmers sold a record 359.1 million kilograms at US$2.49, below the drought-year price.

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2 years ago

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Zimbabwe’s tobacco farmers sold a record 359.1 million kilograms in the 2026 marketing season, at an average of US$2.49 a kilogram.

In 2024, El Niño cut the harvest to 231.7 million kilograms. The average floor price that drought year was US$3.43 a kilogram, the highest of the last four seasons.

El Niño Cut the 2024 Crop Almost as Forecast

When the selling season opened in Harare on March 13, 2024, Patrick Devenish, chairman of the Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board, put the crop at about 235 million kilograms, down from 296.1 million kilograms in 2023. Final sales landed at 231.7 million kilograms, almost 22 percent below the year before and a few million kilograms short of his call.

Most of our tobacco is grown by small-scale farmers. They depend on the rains, and a drought is not good for their crop.

Patrick Devenish, chairman, Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board, Harare, March 2024

Anxious Masuka, then as now the agriculture minister, said small-scale growers produce about 75 percent of the crop and lack irrigation gear, so the national harvest moves with the rains. George Seremwe, president of the Zimbabwe Tobacco Growers Association, said the drought would cost farmers 20 percent or more of their usual earnings.

Likephone Makii, a grower from Madziwa, about 140 kilometers northwest of Harare, usually cuts 6,000 to 7,000 kilograms off two rain-fed hectares. He expected 3,000 kilograms that season and took US$1.70 a kilogram for poor leaf. “It has been the toughest season for me and my fellow small-scale farmers,” he said, and he thought his family would need food aid to get through the year.

The dry spell sat under a Pacific event US climate offices had already named. The Climate Prediction Center’s the November 2023 El Niño outlook said the event would last through the northern spring, covering Zimbabwe’s 2023/24 rains. Harare declared a national disaster in April 2024.

Registered growers fell 11 percent, from 155,160 in 2023 to 137,912 in 2024. Floor sales brought about US$793.9 million, down from about US$897 million. The export book did better. Zimbabwe shipped 243.4 million kilograms worth US$1.4 billion in 2024, against 236 million kilograms worth US$1.2 billion in 2023, at an average export price of US$5.71 a kilogram. The drought hit the farm gate harder than the shipment ledger, which still held leaf from earlier seasons.

Zimbabwe tobacco record 359 million kg at $2.49
Zimbabwe farmers record crop sells cheaper than 2024 drought

The Rebound That Overfilled the Warehouses

Rain returned in the next season, and the industry treated the drought as a pause, not a limit. TIMB recorded 355 million kilograms in 2025. Farmer earnings reached US$1.2 billion, the first time the crop cleared a billion dollars at the farm gate, and the average price eased only to US$3.32 a kilogram. Average earnings per grower rose to US$9,986.

The first Tobacco Value Chain Transformation Plan had aimed for 300 million kilograms by 2025. The harvest blew through that mark, and policy followed the volume. The government set about 400 million kilograms for 2026. Phase two of the plan, launched as the 2026 floors opened, aims for 500 million kilograms by 2030.

Emmanuel Matsvaire, TIMB’s chief executive, warned before those floors opened that the extra leaf was arriving into global oversupply and a 500 million kg target. Brazil and India had raised output. Five southern African countries had added an estimated 160 million kilograms. Zimbabwe’s own processing capacity stands at about 360 million kilograms of green leaf, including a 60 million kilogram plant that is not running. The 2026 crop came in against that ceiling.

High volumes naturally introduce market pressures, which negatively affect pricing.

Emmanuel Matsvaire, chief executive, Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board, Harare, March 2026

Graham Ross, president of the Zimbabwe Tobacco Association, called it a season of “very mixed feelings on the market and indeed the bottom line,” and pointed to a “local, regional and world oversupply situation.” The 2026 crop stopped well short of 400 million kilograms. It still set another national record.

FROM DROUGHT TO GLUT

  1. 2021: Growers market about 184 million kilograms as the smallholder rebuild continues.
  2. 2023: Sales reach 296.1 million kilograms and export receipts hit US$1.2 billion, up from US$975 million in 2022.
  3. March 13, 2024: Devenish forecasts about 235 million kilograms as El Niño dries the crop.
  4. 2024 season: Sales close at 231.7 million kilograms, while the average price rises to US$3.43 a kilogram.
  5. 2025 season: Output rebounds to 355 million kilograms and farm-gate earnings reach US$1.2 billion.
  6. September 22, 2026: Combined sales stand at 359.1 million kilograms at US$2.49 a kilogram.

The same rain-fed majority that lost kilograms in 2024 supplied the extra bales in 2025 and 2026. Contractors financed the expansion. The market did not grow at the same pace.

How Much Did the Record Crop Pay?

By September 22, 2026, growers had sold 359.1 million kilograms at US$2.49 a kilogram, against 355 million kilograms at US$3.32 a kilogram a year earlier. TIMB put the 2026 sales value at US$893.88 million, compared with US$1.2 billion in 2025. The Zimbabwe Tobacco Association’s day 127 sales of 359.1 million kg put auction leaf at US$1.90 a kilogram and contract leaf at US$2.55.

TOBACCO FLOOR RESULTS, 2023 TO 2026

Season Volume (million kg) Average price (US$ per kg) Grower sales (US$ million)
2023 296.1 3.03 897
2024 231.7 3.43 793.9
2025 355 3.32 1,200
2026 359.1 2.49 893.88

The highest average price in that series is 2024. The lowest is 2026, a 25 percent drop from 2025. Farmers delivered more leaf than in any prior season and took home less money than they had in the rebound year, and less per kilogram than they had after the drought.

Auction Prices Versus the Contract Floor

Contract sales accounted for more than 91 percent of the 2026 crop, about 327.4 million kilograms. Auction floors handled about 31.7 million kilograms, less than 9 percent, and that is where the price broke first. TIMB licensed 48 contractors for the season, 47 of them for flue-cured leaf.

THE 2026 PRICE SPLIT

  • Combined average: US$2.49 a kilogram on 359.1 million kilograms sold.
  • Contract average: US$2.55 a kilogram on about 327.4 million kilograms.
  • Auction average: US$1.90 a kilogram on about 31.7 million kilograms.
  • Floor lows: Tobacco Sales Floor saw bids as low as US$0.80 a kilogram during the season.

Forget Kasamu, a small-scale grower from Mount Darwin in Mashonaland Central, sold 10 bales at Tobacco Sales Floor and took about US$800. The leaf fetched US$1.10 a kilogram. He still had to cover US$18 a bale in transport and pay six workers. “I’ve been a tobacco farmer for 45 years, but I can’t believe what happened after selling my tobacco,” he said in June 2026. “I don’t know how I’m going to get through this.”

Kelvin Choga, who coordinates small-scale growers at Northern Tobacco, said that firm’s contract prices still ranged from US$2.50 to US$5.50 a kilogram because the company wanted growers back the next season. Charles Mutikwa, a contracted farmer from Wedza, said even those tickets were “not appetising” next to 2025. Chelesani Tsarwe, a TIMB public relations specialist, put the slide on supply and demand and named Brazil, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia as countries in the same glut. Matsvaire told a parliamentary committee that China, still the largest buyer of Zimbabwean leaf, had cut orders by more than 10 million kilograms.

Smallholders Carry the Volume and the Price Risk

The 2024 drought exposed a structure that had already been built. After land reform, the crop fell from about 240 million kilograms in 1998 to less than 50 million kilograms a decade later, then rebuilt on Black smallholders and contractor credit. China National Tobacco Corp., the world’s largest cigarette maker, was central to that rebuild, advancing seed, fertilizer, food, labour money, and curing wood against a claim on the bales. About 95 percent of the crop ran through contracts of that kind by 2024, some of them from non-Chinese firms.

TIMB says tobacco now supports 135,284 households, up 37 percent from 2017. Localisation of funding reached 67 percent against a 70 percent target. Value addition reached 10.78 percent against a 30 percent target. Alternative crops contributed 16.5 percent of grower income, short of a 25 percent aim. The plan still talks in kilograms.

Willard Munangi, an agricultural economist, said many growers failed to make a profit in 2026 because the crop flooded the market. Temba Mliswa, a farmer and former member of parliament, argued for a quota tied to actual demand so smallholders are not paid for leaf the market has not asked for. Contractors still take the bales. They also take insurance, floor charges, and levies off the ticket, which is how a US$2.55 average can leave a rain-fed grower unable to restock.

Export prices did not collapse with the floor. Early 2026 shipments averaged about US$6.68 a kilogram. The gap between what leaves the port and what lands in a communal bank account is the part of this crop that volume records do not show. Growing more leaf without a matching order book turns smallholders into cheap throughput for the same contractors who financed the extra hectares.

Early Sign-Ups for Next Season Have Collapsed

The price signal is already visible in the seedbed, before the next rains are even a forecast map. By September 18, 2026, only 27,543 farmers had registered for the 2026/27 season, down 41 percent from 46,587 at the same point a year earlier. Seed sales had fallen 37 percent to 868,785 grams. TSL, a major trading and inputs firm, reported weak demand for seedbed packs.

EARLY 2026/27 GROWER SIGN-UP

  • National tally: 27,543 registered growers by September 18, 2026, against 46,587 a year earlier.

    • Seed sales: 868,785 grams, down 37 percent.

  • Mashonaland East: 3,649 growers, down 57 percent.
  • Manicaland: 4,368 growers, down 48 percent.
  • Mashonaland Central: 9,645 growers, down 38 percent.
  • Mashonaland West: 9,804 growers, down 31 percent.

Those four provinces still account for most of the names on the register. A smaller list there is a smaller national crop, unless the remaining growers plant far more each. The 2024 drought cut the roll by 11 percent in a finished season. The 2026 price cut is doing the same work earlier, at the point where a farmer decides whether to buy seed at all.

Another El Niño Warning Hits a Packed Market

The Climate Prediction Center’s latest advisory says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in the northern fall and winter of 2026-27. Masuka told a SADC meeting that early models pointed to a super El Niño in the 2026/27 farming season and that southern Africa is likely to get drier in the decades ahead. Kutsaga Research has already listed drought-adapted varieties for dryland belts. TIMB has told growers to watch aphids early and destroy stalks.

On September 21, 2026, TIMB sat with the agriculture parliamentary committee in Bulawayo and put the problem in one line: how to turn a 359.1 million kilogram season into stronger grower incomes.

The 2024 drought did what Devenish said it would do. It cut a rain-fed crop to 231.7 million kilograms. The seasons after it did something the volume targets did not price in. They filled the warehouses, pulled the average down to US$2.49 a kilogram, and sent tens of thousands of growers away from the seed counter before the next dry forecast had even arrived.

“}”}”}”}“ wait I have a bug in the list – I closed a li wrong.

Looking at this item:
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  • National tally: 27,543 registered growers by September 18, 2026, against 46,587 a year earlier.

    • Seed sales: 868,785 grams, down 37 percent.

    `

    That’s broken HTML. Seed sales li is missing opening

  • . Fix:

    `

  • Seed sales: 868,785 grams, down 37 percent.

    • `

    Also I used “the November 2023 El Niño outlook” as anchor but the sentence is:

    “The Climate Prediction Center’s the November 2023 El Niño outlook said”

    That’s doubled “the”: “Center’s the November” – GRAMMAR GATE. Fix:

    “The Climate Prediction Center published the November 2023 El Niño outlook, which said the event would last through the northern spring, covering Zimbabwe’s 2023/24 rains.”

    Or: “tracked in the November 2023 El Niño outlook“

    “The dry spell sat under a Pacific event US climate offices had already named. The November 2023 El Niño outlook from the Climate Prediction Center said the event would last through the northern spring, covering Zimbabwe’s 2023/24 rains.”

    Capital T in anchor if it starts the sentence. Anchor is “the November 2023 El Niño outlook” – if it starts sentence, the visible text would be “the” lowercase which is wrong. Change anchor to “November 2023 El Niño outlook” (4 words) or weave mid-sentence.

    “US climate offices had already named it in the November 2023 El Niño outlook.”

    That’s clean.

    ZTA link sentence: “the extra leaf was arriving into global oversupply and a 500 million kg target.”

    Reads: “arriving into global oversupply and a 500 million kg target” – a bit awkward. Better:

    “Matsvaire warned before those floors opened about global oversupply and a 500 million kg target.”

    Still odd. “warned that production growth was hitting global oversupply and a 500 million kg target“

    The ZTA page covers both oversupply and the 500M target.

    “Emmanuel Matsvaire, TIMB’s chief executive, used a pre-season briefing to flag global oversupply and a 500 million kg target as the 2026 floors prepared to open.”

    Hmm. “flag X as the 2026 floors” doesn’t parse.

    “Emmanuel Matsvaire, TIMB’s chief executive, warned before those floors opened that extra leaf was arriving into a market already marked by global oversupply and a 500 million kg target.”

    “marked by global oversupply and a 500 million kg target” – the target is policy not a market condition. Split the facts.

    The page contains both facts. One link one sentence.

    “At a Harare briefing carried by the Zimbabwe Tobacco Association, Matsvaire warned of global oversupply and a 500 million kg target.”

    OK enough.

    Day 127: “The Zimbabwe Tobacco Association’s day 127 sales of 359.1 million kg put auction leaf…”

    “Association’s day 127 sales of 359.1 million kg put” – reads OK.

    NOAA current: “with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in the northern fall and winter of 2026-27.”

    Reads: “with a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in the northern fall” – good.

    Fix the broken list.

    Also I had a typo at the end of my draft with extra `}”}”}”}`. The JSON must be clean.

    Word count estimate: the article looks around 1600-1800. Let me add a bit more reported fact in H2.5 or H2.1 to clear 1800.

    Count roughly: Lede 70 H2.1 420 H2.2 380 + timeline 80 H2.3 150 + table H2.4 280 H2.5 280 H2.6 200 H2.7 200 = about 2060 including html. Body text maybe 1700-1900. Add a paragraph on 2024 contract 94%, 37 contractors, 218 million kg from 97,227 growers. And 2025 93% contract.

    Add: first bale 2024 $4.92 vs $4.35 – skip, not needed.

    Add processing electricity: one processor lost nine million kg of processing time to power cuts. That’s a good extra fact in rebound section.

    NCV 325 growers – skip.

    I’ll add the 2024 contract dominance numbers in smallholders section and the nine million kg power loss in rebound.

    Also fix: PART V says 4-10 word anchors. “the November 2023 El Niño outlook” = 6 words. “global oversupply and a 500 million kg target” = 8. “day 127 sales of 359.1 million kg” = 8. “greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event” = 10. Good.

    Q13 said 2-6 words but PART V is 4-10. Fine.

    “2026-27” has a hyphen. Allowed (hyphen not en-dash).

    No em-dashes in article. I used none.

    “US$9,986” has comma, fine.

    “1,200” in table.

    Double-check blockquote: no manual quote marks inside p. Devenish and Matsvaire are unquoted in the blockquote p, cite separate. Good. Inline quotes use curly.

    Kasamu quote: I trimmed “today”. Good.

    Don’t mention Africanews, Farmers Weekly, etc.

    “then as now the agriculture minister” – a bit cute. “agriculture minister Anxious Masuka” is enough. He is still minister in 2026.

    “When the selling season opened” 2024 is past. Good.

    Embed is bare URL in its own p. Good. Not in link_plan.

    I used 4-6 bolds: 359.1 million kilograms, US$2.49, 231.7 million kilograms, US$3.43, 41 percent. Five. Good.

    Heading “How Much Did the Record Crop Pay?” is the one wh-head.

    “Auction Prices Versus the Contract Floor” – Versus capitalized.

    No colon in headings.

    Let me add a few sentences for length and the contract 2024 facts, electricity, and fix HTML.

    Also: “Center’s the November” fix.

    Secondary category NEWS – the list has NEWS. Good.

    I’ll produce clean JSON now.

    One issue: in the list I need 3+ parallel items – the price split has 4, the sign-up has 6. Good.

    Table 4×4. Good.

    Is “FROM DROUGHT TO GLUT” ALL CAPS label before ol? Yes.

    After timeline, prose continues. Yes.

    After table, prose. Yes.

    After price list, Kasamu prose. Yes.

    After sign-up list, prose. Yes.

    Final element is closing prose, not the embed. I have embed then one closing

    . The embed should not be the last element. House style: FINAL element is 2-3 sentences of closing PROSE. I have one closing paragraph after the embed. Make it 2-3 sentences. It already is 3 sentences. Good.

    Wait, is the embed after the TIMB sentence and before the close? Yes. The close is last. Good.

    “The 2024 drought did what Devenish said it would do.” That’s a bit punchy. Fine.

    Avoid antithesis in close. “It cut a rain-fed crop… The seasons after it did something…” That’s sequential not antithesis. OK.

    Let me also add 2024: contract 94%, 37 contractors bought 218 million kg from 97,227 growers. Average contract price US$3.42 – CONFLICT with 3.43 overall. Skip 3.42. Use 94% and 37 contractors.

    Matsvaire 2024 acting CEO biogas quote – skip.

    I’ll write the final JSON carefully with escaped quotes.

    For JSON the article string uses ” for href quotes.

    Curly quotes don’t need escaping.

    Let me recount 41 percent: I bolded it in H2.6. The lede didn’t use 41. Good, one bold of that figure.

    Don’t bold in table.

    image prompt has “RECORD CROP” and “▼ 25%” with escaped quotes in JSON.

    No 4-digit year in image prompt. I didn’t put 2026. Good.

    Worklog already emitted in my thinking – I need to include it in the actual response BEFORE the JSON.

    The function call above was a last search – now I output worklog + JSON as the user-visible response.

    Let me also fix: TIMB embed URL must be exact. https://x.com/timb_zw/status/2101948727904583847

    ZTA: https://x.com/TobaccoZimbabwe/status/2103068666849820943

    I think we’re good.

    One more grammar: “covering Zimbabwe’s 2023/24 rains” – fine.

    “northern fall and winter of 2026-27” – NOAA said NH fall and winter 2026-27. For Zimbabwe that’s the rainy season Oct-Mar. Don’t overclaim NOAA said southern Africa drought in that advisory without fetching it. The current advisory snippet: “El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.” I should not add southern Africa drought from that page alone. Masuka separately warned SADC. Keep them attributed separately. Good as written.

    African Business said 80% of country ravaged, half of 15.1m food insecure. I dropped those. Good.

    Let me expand H2.5 slightly with 2024 contract 94% and 37 contractors.

    Word count: I’ll write fuller paragraphs by joining, not padding.

    “After land reform, the crop fell from about 240 million kilograms in 1998 to less than 50 million kilograms a decade later, then rebuilt on Black smallholders and contractor credit.” That’s one good long sentence.

    I notice I should not use “Black” unless source does. Source: “Black farmers, who now make up the majority” and Seremwe “represents Black small-scale farmers”. Can use small-scale / communal. Safer: “rebuilt on smallholders and contractor credit.”

    Final article text going into JSON. I’ll be careful with the seed sales li.

    Also I had:

    Seed sales: – missing

  • . Fix.

    Let me also verify no en-dash in “2023 to 2026” in the table label: “TOBACCO FLOOR RESULTS, 2023 TO 2026” – used TO not dash. Good.

    Ready.THINK: angle: Ironic / Mixed / Two years after El Niño cut Zimbabwe’s tobacco harvest, farmers grew the two biggest crops on record and earned less per kilogram than they did in the drought year. THINK: consensus banned: drought wrecked the 2024 crop and small farmers. Gate: the rebound that followed is the larger bill, paid in price not kilograms. THINK: search A1 data/stat: 2024 actual 231.7M kg vs 235M forecast; 2025 355M kg and US$1.2B; 2026 359.1M kg at US$2.49, value US$893.88M. THINK: search A2 history/climate: 75% rain-fed smallholders, Masuka, Devenish, Seremwe 20%, Makii 3,000 kg, disaster April 2024, NOAA 2023-24 El Niño. THINK: search A3 angle-fact: Brazil/India/SADC oversupply, Matsvaire price pressure, auction US$1.90 vs contract US$2.55, Kasamu US$1.10, China order cut, processing cap ~360M kg, 500M kg by 2030. THINK: enough? Wave A plus four fetches answered the irony; skipped a full Wave B; topped up for NOAA and TIMB URLs only. THINK: fetched ZTA (Matsvaire, 355M, 500M, 160M SADC, 360M processing), zimbabwenow recap (four-season ledger, 41% sign-up drop), Africanews (Devenish/Makii/Seremwe), Farmers Weekly (Kasamu, Tsarwe, Choga). THINK: x latest: ZTA day 127 on 22 Sep 2026, 359,099,787 kg at US$2.49; TIMB 21 Sep says 359.1M kg produced and asks how to turn volume into grower incomes. THINK: x top: official volume pride vs grower price pain; Temba Mliswa argued for demand quotas; farmers ditching the crop. Split is volume versus pay, not applause. THINK: x thread: Mliswa thread thin, one empty reply. Absorb his demand-match point as analysis; drop his mid-season US$2.68 and US$708.5M as they conflict with TIMB finals. THINK: crowd: the registration collapse is the price signal hitting the seedbed; more kilograms without matched demand leaves smallholders as cheap throughput for contractors. THINK: numbers = 13 Mar 2024 open; forecast ~235M kg; 2023 296.1M kg, US$3.03/kg, ~US$897M floor, US$1.2B exports from US$975M in 2022; 2024 231.7M kg, US$3.43/kg, ~US$793.9M; 2024 exports 243.4M kg worth US$1.4B at US$5.71/kg; growers 155,160 to 137,912; 75% small-scale; Seremwe 20%+; Makii 6,000-7,000 kg usual, 3,000 expected, US$1.70/kg, 2 ha, 140 km; 2024 contract 94%, 37 contractors, 218M kg from 97,227 growers; 2025 355M kg, US$3.32/kg, US$1.2B, US$9,986 per grower; 2026 359.1M kg, US$2.49/kg, US$893.88M; auction 31.7M kg at US$1.90; contract 327.4M kg at US$2.55, more than 91%; 400M kg 2026 target; 500M kg by 2030; processing ~360M kg incl. 60M kg idle; one processor lost 9M kg of processing time; SADC +160M kg; Kasamu US$1.10/kg, 10 bales ~US$800, US$18/bale, 6 workers; TSF as low as US$0.80; Northern Tobacco US$2.50-US$5.50; 27,543 growers by 18 Sep 2026 vs 46,587, down 41%; seed 868,785 g, down 37%; Mash East 3,649 (-57%), Manicaland 4,368 (-48%), Mash Central 9,645 (-38%), Mash West 9,804 (-31%); 135,284 households, up 37% from 2017; value addition 10.78% vs 30%; funding 67% vs 70%; alt crops 16.5% vs 25%; 48 contractors; China cut more than 10M kg; NOAA greater than 90% very strong El Niño NH fall-winter 2026-27; 2021 184M kg; 2022 213M kg; 1998 ~240M kg then under 50M kg; April 2024 disaster; 22 Sep 2026 day 127; 21 Sep 2026 TIMB forum. THINK: verify = (296.1-231.7)/296.1=21.75% so almost 22% kept; (155160-137912)/155160=11.12% so 11% kept; (3.32-2.49)/3.32=25.00% so 25% kept; 31.694988+327.404799=359.099787 so 359.1M, 31.7M, 327.4M kept; 327.4/359.1=91.17% so more than 91% kept; (46587-27543)/46587=40.88% so 41% kept; 235-231.7=3.3M kg, 3.3/235=1.4%, heading Almost as Forecast kept; 24% value drop used US$1.16B, that percent and US$1.16B dropped, kept US$1.2B and US$893.88M as separate TIMB totals; 232/234/224 dropped for 231.7; 3.42 dropped for 3.43; 350/352.7/354/357 dropped for 355 and 359.1; all hectarage figures dropped on conflict; food-insecure headcounts dropped; Mliswa US$2.68 and US$708.5M dropped. THINK: claims = 2026 record is 359.1M kg at US$2.49 in lede, table, later sections; 2024 is 231.7M kg at US$3.43; 2025 is 355M kg at US$3.32 and US$1.2B; 75% small-scale; 41% early sign-up drop; auction US$1.90 vs contract US$2.55; heading Almost as Forecast matches 231.7 vs 235. THINK: flow: lede to 2024 drought actuals to rebound glut to price table to auction/contract split to smallholder risk to sign-up collapse to next El Niño close. THINK: H2s: El Niño Cut the 2024 Crop Almost as Forecast / The Rebound That Overfilled the Warehouses / How Much Did the Record Crop Pay? / Auction Prices Versus the Contract Floor / Smallholders Carry the Volume and the Price Risk / Early Sign-Ups for Next Season Have Collapsed / Another El Niño Warning Hits a Packed Market THINK: element map: H2.1 prose plus Devenish blockquote; H2.2 timeline of 2021-2026; H2.3 table of four seasons; H2.4 list of 2026 price split then Kasamu; H2.5 prose; H2.6 stats snapshot of sign-ups; H2.7 TIMB embed plus close prose. H2.5 stays narrative. THINK: faq gate: unresolved: 2026/27 planting, live registrations, and a forming El Niño still move; no FAQ. THINK: links: NOAA Nov 2023 ENSO; ZTA TIMB 2026 briefing; ZTA X day 127; NOAA current ENSO. Internal: none in candidates. THINK: embeds: https://x.com/timb_zw/status/2101948727904583847 TIMB 359.1M kg Bulawayo forum. Not in link_plan. THINK: image refs: pbs HOzClo8XUAARNgi TIMB bales graphic; pbs HSufMtaWkAArLrV and HSufNTfXUAA2mt- TIMB forum; Farmers Weekly Northern Tobacco bales. THINK: image concept: unique fact = 2026 record 359.1M kg paid US$2.49, 25% below 2025 and below the drought-year US$3.43 | register = thumbnail because the hook is a price verdict on a record crop | stock shot = cracked earth and wilted plants rejected | concept = gold tobacco bales sliding off a pile under RECORD CROP and a red down 25% | mechanism = text-led | real-check = every object exists and every connection is closed WORKLOG END {“no_topic_reason”:””,”angle_archetype”:”Ironic”,”angle_sentiment”:”Mixed”,”angle_argument”:”Two years after El Niño cut Zimbabwe’s tobacco harvest, farmers grew the two biggest crops on record and earned less per kilogram than they did in the drought year.”,”run_verification_tag”:”e313b399ff52

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    Harry is the editor of TIMES OF CANNABIS, the independent cannabis news title he owns and runs, reporting on cannabis and hemp law, licensing, business and science. His journalism career spans ten years, from reporter to editor, and most of it has been spent following the legal cannabis industry as it grew. The stories start with documents: state and national statutes, the rules published by licensing agencies, court rulings, company filings and earnings, hemp testing standards and the studies behind claims about health effects. Sales totals, tax receipts and licence counts are checked against the original agency data before publication, and a figure that cannot be traced to a source does not run. A public corrections policy sets out how mistakes are handled, and corrected articles carry a note saying what changed. Coverage of medical use is reporting, not advice; the legal status of cannabis varies by jurisdiction, and anyone considering it for a health condition should speak with a clinician. Harry reads and answers mail at support@timesofcannabis.com.

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